Synth reporting
Andrew Baxter
2021-05-18
1 Setting up data
1.1 Under-18 birth rates
Data from Human Mortality Database and Human Fertility Database was used to calculate birth rates. This was tidied to give Under-18 rates:
Data available to download here.
1.2 Under-20 pregnancy rates
Abortion estimates were added to give Under-20 rates:
Data available to download here.
2 Iterating through year combinations
For each comparison, I iterated through all combinations of years as special predictors to minimise MSPE (whilst prioritising fewest groupings). For example, for the under-18 basic model with years as special predictors:
it_u18_sp <- testSynthIterations(
yrs = 1990:1998,
pred = "rate",
data = synthData_u18_filt[,1:4],
ccodes = u_18_ccodes,
n = 4,
predictors = NULL,
time.optimise = 1985:1998
) %>%
arrange(groups, mspe)3 All countries, no additional predictors
3.1 Model 1: Under-18 birth rates
3.1.1 All Countries graph
3.1.2 England vs Synthetic Control
Over the period 1999 to 2013, England and Wales saw a difference of -3,744 births (to an average population of 995,340 women).
The MSPE across the pre-intervention period was 0.0923, (an average error of 0.304) and the synthetic predictor was able to account for 77.2% of the variance (R2 = 0.772).
3.1.3 Weights and balance
| Country | Weight | |
|---|---|---|
| 11 | Scotland | 0.672 |
| 20 | Portugal | 0.295 |
| 23 | United States of America | 0.016 |
| 30 | New Zealand | 0.012 |
| 14 | Iceland | 0.001 |
| 22 | Sweden | 0.001 |
| 2 | Switzerland | 0.000 |
| 4 | Germany | 0.000 |
| 5 | Denmark | 0.000 |
| 6 | Spain | 0.000 |
| 8 | Finland | 0.000 |
| 9 | France | 0.000 |
| 15 | Italy | 0.000 |
| 17 | Netherlands | 0.000 |
| 18 | Norway | 0.000 |
| v.weights | |
|---|---|
| special.rate.1990.1993 | 0.01 |
| special.rate.1994 | 0.333 |
| special.rate.1995 | 0.295 |
| special.rate.1996.1998 | 0.362 |
| Treated | Synthetic | Sample Mean | |
|---|---|---|---|
| special.rate.1990.1993 | 16.214 | 16.275 | 10.415 |
| special.rate.1994 | 15.078 | 14.952 | 9.629 |
| special.rate.1995 | 15.285 | 15.561 | 9.660 |
| special.rate.1996.1998 | 16.836 | 16.728 | 9.257 |
3.1.4 Placebo testing by country and time
## Countries removed: Switzerland, Scotland, Iceland, United States of America, New ZealandView this live online.
| Country | Post/pre MSPE ratio | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| France | 457.71 | 1 |
| Spain | 117.61 | 2 |
| Norway | 49.90 | 3 |
| Portugal | 21.48 | 4 |
| New Zealand | 17.73 | 5 |
| Netherlands | 12.74 | 6 |
| Iceland | 9.73 | 7 |
| Denmark | 9.01 | 8 |
| Sweden | 8.46 | 9 |
| Finland | 6.54 | 10 |
| Germany | 6.02 | 11 |
| Italy | 3.96 | 12 |
| United States of America | 2.97 | 13 |
| England and Wales | 1.86 | 14 |
| Scotland | 1.39 | 15 |
| Switzerland | 0.89 | 16 |
In placebo-country tests, England and Wales ranked 14 out of 16 countries by pre/post-MSPE ratio.
View this live online.
3.2 Model 2: Under-20 pregnancy rates
3.2.1 All Countries graph
3.2.2 England vs Synthetic Control
Over the period 1999 to 2013, England and Wales saw a difference of 152,471 pregnancies (to an average population of 1,668,190 women).
The MSPE across the pre-intervention period was 4.27, (an average error of 2.07) and the synthetic predictor was able to account for 52.1% of the variance (R2 = 0.521).
3.2.3 Weights and balance
| Country | Weight | |
|---|---|---|
| 9 | Scotland | 0.639 |
| 22 | United States of America | 0.227 |
| 12 | Iceland | 0.134 |
| 1 | Switzerland | 0.000 |
| 3 | Germany | 0.000 |
| 4 | Denmark | 0.000 |
| 5 | Spain | 0.000 |
| 7 | Finland | 0.000 |
| 8 | France | 0.000 |
| 13 | Italy | 0.000 |
| 15 | Netherlands | 0.000 |
| 16 | Norway | 0.000 |
| 19 | Portugal | 0.000 |
| 20 | New Zealand | 0.000 |
| 21 | Sweden | 0.000 |
| v.weights | |
|---|---|
| special.pRate.1990 | 0.152 |
| special.pRate.1991.1995 | 0.578 |
| special.pRate.1996.1998 | 0.271 |
| Treated | Synthetic | Sample Mean | |
|---|---|---|---|
| special.pRate.1990 | 68.000 | 65.337 | 35.661 |
| special.pRate.1991.1995 | 60.620 | 62.055 | 32.224 |
| special.pRate.1996.1998 | 63.633 | 61.259 | 30.895 |
3.2.4 Placebo testing by country and time
## Countries removed: United States of AmericaView this live online.
| Country | Post/pre MSPE ratio | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Spain | 654.63 | 1 |
| France | 132.59 | 2 |
| Germany | 93.57 | 3 |
| Portugal | 87.29 | 4 |
| Sweden | 62.02 | 5 |
| Netherlands | 34.46 | 6 |
| Italy | 26.30 | 7 |
| Switzerland | 20.14 | 8 |
| Finland | 10.40 | 9 |
| Norway | 10.14 | 10 |
| England and Wales | 9.10 | 11 |
| Iceland | 6.21 | 12 |
| Denmark | 5.29 | 13 |
| New Zealand | 3.05 | 14 |
| Scotland | 1.59 | 15 |
| United States of America | 0.06 | 16 |
In placebo-country tests, England and Wales ranked 11 out of 16 countries by pre/post-MSPE ratio.
View this live online.
4 Filtered to remove Scotland, no additional predictors
4.1 Model 3: Under-18 birth rates
4.1.1 England vs Synthetic Control
Over the period 1999 to 2013, England and Wales saw a difference of -17,765 births (to an average population of 995,340 women).
The MSPE across the pre-intervention period was 0.616, (an average error of 0.785) and the synthetic predictor was able to account for 1% of the variance (R2 = 0.01).
4.1.2 Weights and balance
| Country | Weight | |
|---|---|---|
| 19 | Portugal | 0.807 |
| 20 | New Zealand | 0.193 |
| 1 | Switzerland | 0.000 |
| 3 | Germany | 0.000 |
| 4 | Denmark | 0.000 |
| 5 | Spain | 0.000 |
| 7 | Finland | 0.000 |
| 8 | France | 0.000 |
| 12 | Iceland | 0.000 |
| 13 | Italy | 0.000 |
| 15 | Netherlands | 0.000 |
| 16 | Norway | 0.000 |
| 21 | Sweden | 0.000 |
| 22 | United States of America | 0.000 |
| v.weights | |
|---|---|
| special.rate.1990.1993 | 0.206 |
| special.rate.1994 | 0.156 |
| special.rate.1995 | 0.318 |
| special.rate.1996.1998 | 0.32 |
| Treated | Synthetic | Sample Mean | |
|---|---|---|---|
| special.rate.1990.1993 | 16.214 | 16.587 | 9.928 |
| special.rate.1994 | 15.078 | 15.963 | 9.210 |
| special.rate.1995 | 15.285 | 15.782 | 9.155 |
| special.rate.1996.1998 | 16.836 | 15.803 | 8.607 |
4.1.3 Placebo testing by country and time
## Countries removed: New Zealand, United States of AmericaView this live online.
| Country | Post/pre MSPE ratio | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| France | 276.84 | 1 |
| Spain | 156.46 | 2 |
| Norway | 110.77 | 3 |
| New Zealand | 15.37 | 4 |
| Netherlands | 12.63 | 5 |
| Iceland | 11.93 | 6 |
| Portugal | 9.98 | 7 |
| Denmark | 8.38 | 8 |
| Sweden | 8.37 | 9 |
| Finland | 6.50 | 10 |
| Italy | 3.95 | 11 |
| Germany | 3.23 | 12 |
| United States of America | 2.97 | 13 |
| England and Wales | 2.92 | 14 |
| Switzerland | 0.89 | 15 |
In placebo-country tests, England and Wales ranked 14 out of 15 countries by pre/post-MSPE ratio.
View this live online.
4.2 Model 4: Under-20 pregnancy rates
4.2.1 England vs Synthetic Control
Over the period 1999 to 2013, England and Wales saw a difference of 250,707 pregnancies (to an average population of 1,668,190 women).
The MSPE across the pre-intervention period was 6.03, (an average error of 2.46) and the synthetic predictor was able to account for 34.7% of the variance (R2 = 0.347).
4.2.2 Weights and balance
| Country | Weight | |
|---|---|---|
| 12 | Iceland | 0.359 |
| 22 | United States of America | 0.353 |
| 20 | New Zealand | 0.288 |
| 1 | Switzerland | 0.000 |
| 3 | Germany | 0.000 |
| 4 | Denmark | 0.000 |
| 5 | Spain | 0.000 |
| 7 | Finland | 0.000 |
| 8 | France | 0.000 |
| 13 | Italy | 0.000 |
| 15 | Netherlands | 0.000 |
| 16 | Norway | 0.000 |
| 19 | Portugal | 0.000 |
| 21 | Sweden | 0.000 |
| v.weights | |
|---|---|
| special.pRate.1990 | 0.309 |
| special.pRate.1991.1995 | 0.498 |
| special.pRate.1996.1998 | 0.193 |
| Treated | Synthetic | Sample Mean | |
|---|---|---|---|
| special.pRate.1990 | 68.000 | 67.005 | 34.180 |
| special.pRate.1991.1995 | 60.620 | 62.152 | 30.590 |
| special.pRate.1996.1998 | 63.633 | 60.236 | 28.987 |
4.2.3 Placebo testing by country and time
## Countries removed: United States of AmericaView this live online.
| Country | Post/pre MSPE ratio | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Spain | 659.22 | 1 |
| France | 155.23 | 2 |
| Germany | 93.58 | 3 |
| Portugal | 78.80 | 4 |
| Sweden | 61.93 | 5 |
| Switzerland | 35.09 | 6 |
| Netherlands | 34.47 | 7 |
| Italy | 33.64 | 8 |
| England and Wales | 17.39 | 9 |
| New Zealand | 12.23 | 10 |
| Finland | 10.31 | 11 |
| Denmark | 6.39 | 12 |
| Norway | 5.94 | 13 |
| Iceland | 5.28 | 14 |
| United States of America | 0.07 | 15 |
In placebo-country tests, England and Wales ranked 9 out of 15 countries by pre/post-MSPE ratio.
View this live online.
5 Adding all predictors
5.1 Model 5: Under-18 birth rates
5.1.1 England vs Synthetic Control
The MSPE across the pre-intervention period was 1.49, (an average error of 1.22) and the synthetic predictor was able to account for 5.3% of the variance (R2 = 0.053).
5.1.2 Weights and balance
| Country | Weight | |
|---|---|---|
| 19 | Portugal | 0.582 |
| 12 | Iceland | 0.245 |
| 22 | United States of America | 0.172 |
| 1 | Switzerland | 0.000 |
| 3 | Germany | 0.000 |
| 4 | Denmark | 0.000 |
| 5 | Spain | 0.000 |
| 7 | Finland | 0.000 |
| 8 | France | 0.000 |
| 13 | Italy | 0.000 |
| 15 | Netherlands | 0.000 |
| 16 | Norway | 0.000 |
| 21 | Sweden | 0.000 |
| v.weights | |
|---|---|
| special.rate.1990.1993 | 0.165 |
| special.rate.1994 | 0.049 |
| special.rate.1995 | 0.12 |
| special.rate.1996.1998 | 0.016 |
| special.pRate.1990 | 0.01 |
| special.pRate.1991.1995 | 0.008 |
| special.pRate.1996.1998 | 0.031 |
| special.GDPperCap.1990.2003 | 0 |
| special.GDPperCap.2004 | 0 |
| special.GDPperCap.2005.2010 | 0 |
| special.GDPperCap.2011.2013 | 0 |
| special.edu_spend.1995.1998 | 0 |
| special.edu_spend.1999.2007 | 0.002 |
| special.edu_spend.2008.2013 | 0.002 |
| special.MobilePhones.1990.1992 | 0.05 |
| special.MobilePhones.1993.1995 | 0 |
| special.MobilePhones.1996.1997 | 0.522 |
| special.MobilePhones.1998.2013 | 0.025 |
| special.UrbanPop.1990 | 0 |
| special.UrbanPop.1991 | 0 |
| special.UrbanPop.1992 | 0 |
| special.UrbanPop.1993.2013 | 0 |
| Treated | Synthetic | Sample Mean | |
|---|---|---|---|
| special.rate.1990.1993 | 16.214 | 16.952 | 8.005 |
| special.rate.1994 | 15.078 | 16.082 | 7.329 |
| special.rate.1995 | 15.285 | 15.653 | 7.099 |
| special.rate.1996.1998 | 16.836 | 15.057 | 6.703 |
| special.pRate.1990 | 68.000 | 52.080 | 32.961 |
| special.pRate.1991.1995 | 60.620 | 47.070 | 29.104 |
| special.pRate.1996.1998 | 63.633 | 44.576 | 27.083 |
| special.GDPperCap.1990.2003 | 24800.333 | 19029.179 | 26870.008 |
| special.GDPperCap.2004 | 39983.985 | 29252.608 | 39108.220 |
| special.GDPperCap.2005.2010 | 43340.344 | 33941.909 | 47573.339 |
| special.GDPperCap.2011.2013 | 41975.732 | 32879.360 | 52420.115 |
| special.edu_spend.1995.1998 | 4.223 | 5.964 | 5.616 |
| special.edu_spend.1999.2007 | 5.296 | 6.717 | 5.627 |
| special.edu_spend.2008.2013 | 5.794 | 6.643 | 5.691 |
| special.MobilePhones.1990.1992 | 2.256 | 1.854 | 2.778 |
| special.MobilePhones.1993.1995 | 6.881 | 4.949 | 7.214 |
| special.MobilePhones.1996.1997 | 13.808 | 14.411 | 18.310 |
| special.MobilePhones.1998.2013 | 98.113 | 91.103 | 93.736 |
| special.UrbanPop.1990 | 78.140 | 63.137 | 74.238 |
| special.UrbanPop.1991 | 78.112 | 63.573 | 74.478 |
| special.UrbanPop.1992 | 78.172 | 64.070 | 74.734 |
| special.UrbanPop.1993.2013 | 79.690 | 69.134 | 77.582 |
5.1.3 Placebo testing by country
## Countries removed: United States of AmericaView this live online.
| Country | Post/pre MSPE ratio | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Germany | 55.45 | 1 |
| Spain | 42.14 | 2 |
| France | 10.93 | 3 |
| Portugal | 10.86 | 4 |
| Netherlands | 3.56 | 5 |
| Finland | 3.41 | 6 |
| Iceland | 3.17 | 7 |
| Norway | 2.69 | 8 |
| Sweden | 2.36 | 9 |
| Italy | 2.18 | 10 |
| Denmark | 1.96 | 11 |
| England and Wales | 1.56 | 12 |
| Switzerland | 0.59 | 13 |
| United States of America | 0.21 | 14 |
In placebo-country tests, England and Wales ranked 12 out of 14 countries by pre/post-MSPE ratio.
5.2 Model 6: Under-20 pregnancy rates
5.2.1 England vs Synthetic Control
The MSPE across the pre-intervention period was 11.6, (an average error of 3.41) and the synthetic predictor was able to account for 22.8% of the variance (R2 = 0.228).
5.2.2 Weights and balance
| Country | Weight | |
|---|---|---|
| 22 | United States of America | 0.424 |
| 12 | Iceland | 0.420 |
| 19 | Portugal | 0.156 |
| 1 | Switzerland | 0.000 |
| 3 | Germany | 0.000 |
| 4 | Denmark | 0.000 |
| 5 | Spain | 0.000 |
| 7 | Finland | 0.000 |
| 8 | France | 0.000 |
| 13 | Italy | 0.000 |
| 15 | Netherlands | 0.000 |
| 16 | Norway | 0.000 |
| 21 | Sweden | 0.000 |
| v.weights | |
|---|---|
| special.pRate.1990 | 0.202 |
| special.pRate.1991.1995 | 0.179 |
| special.pRate.1996.1998 | 0.345 |
| special.rate.1990.1993 | 0.011 |
| special.rate.1994 | 0.016 |
| special.rate.1995 | 0.017 |
| special.rate.1996.1998 | 0 |
| special.MobilePhones.1990.1992 | 0.001 |
| special.MobilePhones.1993.1995 | 0.002 |
| special.MobilePhones.1996.1997 | 0.009 |
| special.MobilePhones.1998.2013 | 0.002 |
| special.edu_spend.1995.1998 | 0.002 |
| special.edu_spend.1999.2007 | 0 |
| special.edu_spend.2008.2013 | 0 |
| special.GDPperCap.1990.2003 | 0.028 |
| special.GDPperCap.2004 | 0.024 |
| special.GDPperCap.2005.2010 | 0.006 |
| special.GDPperCap.2011.2013 | 0.011 |
| special.UrbanPop.1990 | 0.038 |
| special.UrbanPop.1991 | 0.036 |
| special.UrbanPop.1992 | 0.036 |
| special.UrbanPop.1993.2013 | 0.034 |
| Treated | Synthetic | Sample Mean | |
|---|---|---|---|
| special.pRate.1990 | 68.000 | 68.847 | 32.961 |
| special.pRate.1991.1995 | 60.620 | 62.543 | 29.104 |
| special.pRate.1996.1998 | 63.633 | 58.508 | 27.083 |
| special.rate.1990.1993 | 16.214 | 23.982 | 8.005 |
| special.rate.1994 | 15.078 | 22.883 | 7.329 |
| special.rate.1995 | 15.285 | 22.538 | 7.099 |
| special.rate.1996.1998 | 16.836 | 20.387 | 6.703 |
| special.MobilePhones.1990.1992 | 2.256 | 3.421 | 2.778 |
| special.MobilePhones.1993.1995 | 6.881 | 7.980 | 7.214 |
| special.MobilePhones.1996.1997 | 13.808 | 18.113 | 18.310 |
| special.MobilePhones.1998.2013 | 98.113 | 83.549 | 93.736 |
| special.edu_spend.1995.1998 | 4.223 | 5.853 | 5.616 |
| special.edu_spend.1999.2007 | 5.296 | 6.689 | 5.627 |
| special.edu_spend.2008.2013 | 5.794 | 6.780 | 5.691 |
| special.GDPperCap.1990.2003 | 24800.333 | 27053.641 | 26870.008 |
| special.GDPperCap.2004 | 39983.985 | 40327.351 | 39108.220 |
| special.GDPperCap.2005.2010 | 43340.344 | 45726.029 | 47573.339 |
| special.GDPperCap.2011.2013 | 41975.732 | 44598.967 | 52420.115 |
| special.UrbanPop.1990 | 78.140 | 77.525 | 74.238 |
| special.UrbanPop.1991 | 78.112 | 77.857 | 74.478 |
| special.UrbanPop.1992 | 78.172 | 78.204 | 74.734 |
| special.UrbanPop.1993.2013 | 79.690 | 81.341 | 77.582 |
5.2.3 Placebo testing by country
## Countries removed: United States of AmericaView this live online.
| Country | Post/pre MSPE ratio | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Spain | 92.57 | 1 |
| France | 90.23 | 2 |
| Italy | 62.81 | 3 |
| Portugal | 48.02 | 4 |
| Switzerland | 33.19 | 5 |
| Netherlands | 24.92 | 6 |
| Germany | 20.68 | 7 |
| England and Wales | 18.67 | 8 |
| Finland | 7.80 | 9 |
| Denmark | 4.04 | 10 |
| Norway | 3.75 | 11 |
| Sweden | 2.65 | 12 |
| Iceland | 0.96 | 13 |
| United States of America | 0.28 | 14 |
In placebo-country tests, England and Wales ranked 8 out of 14 countries by pre/post-MSPE ratio.
